ABSTRACT

Objective: The geographic expansion of the chikungunya outbreak has given rise to a global interest in identifying the influential factors that cause the spread of the disease. The aim of this paper was to recognize by negative binomial models using climatic conditions from 2006 to 2019, the environmental factors and climatic factors which are associated with the incidence of chikungunya, in the chikungunya epidemic region of Mysore, Karnataka. Methods: Various Climatic factors were considered as predictor variables while Chikungunya cases were considered as response variable. Spearman correlation was assessed between Chikungunya cases and climatic factors to identify the most preceding months (lag period) on the occurrence of Chikungunya cases. Lag period of one to three months were considered. Results: The occurrence of chikungunya was significantly influenced by the minimum temperature at lag 1 and the maximum relative humidity at lag 2. The variable minimum temperature at lag 1 has a coefficient of 0.394 which implies that for each one degree Celsius increase in Minimum temperature at lag 1 month, the expected log of chikungunya cases increases by 0.394 %. Similarly for Maximum Relative humidity with a coefficient of 0.104, one degree increase in Maximum Relative humidity of the corresponding month, the expected log of dengue cases increase by 0.104%. The vector control and chikungunya management programme should be introduced at least three months in advance of the chikungunya epidemic season, taking into account the impact of maximum temperatures in previous months on the incidence of chikungunya. Keywords: Chikungunya, Negative binomial model, Maximum temperature, Rainfall, Relative humidity
Publication date: 01/01/2022

https://ijbpas.com/pdf/2022/January/MS_IJBPAS_2022_5819.pdf

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https://doi.org/10.31032/IJBPAS/2022/11.1.5819